Population and Olympic Success: Rajdeep Sardesai has got it wrong

Had posted it as a facebook note recently. Apologies for cross posting but I believe in increasing the worth of not just MZ but also WP 

Rajdeep Sardesai recently wrote a rather provocative but unremarkable piece on Olympics and India. One excerpt being cited by the website itself : ”

While the world soaks in the Olympic spirit, India’s role has been that of the enthusiastic spectator on the margins. Eight Olympic gold medals in hockey reflect a sepia-tinted nostalgia for another era. Four bronze, one silver and one gold in individual sport represent a pitiful tally for a billion-plus country. Why even tiny Jamaica, with a population equal to a Mumbai suburb, has claimed 55 Olympic medals since its independence in 1962.”

The argument is problematic. If India was indeed a country with the population of a Mumbai Suburb, we perhaps indeed would have been winning a medal or two every edition just as Jamica does. The billion plus unfortunately on this front is not (yet) a strength but a problem, more so because we are a true democracy.

The larger point, journalism schools need to offer classes on causal inference.